Presidential Polls, 7/25

Colorado

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 4.5% (6/17-24 results)

McCain (R) 46 (44)
Obama (D) 44 (49)

These Q-poll numbers are creating a bit of a panic today, which is a bit overwrought and unwarranted, even if the odd number here and there doesn't look good for us. In the case of Colorado, it's always nice when the numbers show our guy in the lead, but most polling has shown this race within the MoE, and this poll is no different. This is what's known as a "battleground", and as such, is inherently, by definition, tight.

I mean, look at the Pollster.com composite score on this race: Obama 46.2, McCain 45.5. That is tight, and should remain so for a while.

Michigan

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 4% (6/17-24 results)

McCain (R) 42 (42)
Obama (D) 46 (48)

Float within the MoE. These numbers are better than those of local firm EPIC-MRA released yesterday, which gave Obama a narrow 43-41 lead. This poll actually widens the composite a bit, up to 47 Obama, 40 McCain.

Lots of rumors floating around that Romney has the leg up in the GOP veep sweepstakes because of his ability to "deliver" Michigan.

Minnesota

Rasmussen. 7/22. MoE 4.5% (7/10 results)

McCain (R) 39 (34)
Obama (D) 52 (52)

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 2.8% (6/17-24 results)

McCain (R) 44 (37)
Obama (D) 46 (54)

Not much change in Rasmussen's numbers, but a huge McCain gain in that Q-poll that has everyone freaking out. Rather than cherry pick the favorable polls and try to explain away the bad ones, use this as a reminder that every state is competitive until the fat lady has sung. You get complacent at your own peril.

But the composite poll of polls still gives Obama a comfortable lead -- Obama 50.2, McCain 37.7. No need to panic, but also no need to slack off.

New Hampshire

Rasmussen. 7/23. MoE 4.5% (6/18 results)

McCain (R) 45 (39)
Obama (D) 49 (50)

This poll seems to ratify yesterday's ARG poll showing things getting tighter in the Granite State. Both ARG and Ras had given Obama a double-digit lead in their previous polls, and both show it much tighter today.

The composite is at Obama 48, McCain 41.9, but I think it's fair to conclude that this state is likely a bit tighter than that.

Wisconsin

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 4.5% (6/17-24 results)

McCain (R) 39 (39)
Obama (D) 50 (52)

More float within the MoE. Wisconsin remains surprisingly strong for Obama given how tough it's been to hold the last two presidential years. The composite remains safely in double digits -- Obama 50.6, McCain 38.3.