House and Senate Roundup, 7/24: Roundup On Steroids

Lots of news today.

NM-Sen: So far, everything has come up Milhouse for Tom Udall; he has substantial polling leads and a significant cash advantage over Republican Steve Pearce.

Get ready for a round of negative ads from Pearce...and, it seems, from shadowy Big Oil groups. NM FBIHOP reports:

The American Energy Alliance, a group with no website, no online FEC filings and no IRS filings, has started airing ads blasting Tom Udall for not wanting to drill anywhere and everywhere.

...

An excerpt: "The U.S. is sitting on top of vast untapped oil reserves, estimated at about 2 trillion barrels, enough oil to last us for 300 years."

This is complete bullshit.  Even Saudi Arabia doesn't have 2 trillion barrels; they have about a quarter of that in their reserves.

Who are these guys? They're the American Energy Association, a group with no real profile since 1996:

A September 13, 1996 Washington Post article described the group as "a coalition of the National Association of Manufacturers, American Petroleum Institute and Edison Electric Institute."  Hmm... wonder what their agenda on wanting more drilling could possibly be.  

Steve Pearce can't afford to close the gap between himself and Udall. He hasn't the resources, nor the likability. So it will be left to third-party organizations, here and elsewhere, to do the Republicans' jobs for them.

NC-Sen: DSCC chair Chuck Schumer loves Kay Hagan:

Schumer confirmed the DSCC has committed millions of dollars to advertising for Hagan and said the organization is setting up an "extensive" on-the-ground field network of staff on Hagan's behalf.

"That shows our commitment," Schumer said. He would not go into further details.

The Chairman was so bold as to say:

"Kay Hagan's on fire," Schumer said. "She's doing great. That's a seat we’re real strong in."

And even though North Carolina isn't a state in which Democrats are ahead, Schumer made a prediction about Hagan: "She's going to win," he said.

She very well might.

KS-Sen: Pat Roberts certainly seems to think he's in some danger; he's out with his fifth ad of the cycle.

This one is especially weak. It hits Democrat Jim Slattery for a weak attendance record in Congress in 1994, his last year...conveniently ignoring that Slattery was in Kansas running for Governor in 1994.

Nice one, Pat Roberts.  

Meanwhile, Slattery's latest ad hits the Republican incumbent Roberts on gas prices:

MN-Sen: A Rasmussen poll shows Al Franken and Norm Coleman deadlocked in Minnesota:  

Coleman (R) 44 (42)
Franken (D) 43 (44)

Franken recently shook up his campaign staff, and has taken a harder edge against Coleman in recent ads. Coleman, for his part, has responded in kind with his latest ad, entitled "Crazy Porn", which alleges that Franken was responsible for, well, writing crazy porn.

Things are better for Franken then they were even a few weeks ago, but beating Norm Coleman is not going to be easy. It never was.

House Races

NH-02, NH-02: Take these polls with a boatload of salt, but here are the UNH polling numbers for New Hampshire's Congressional districts. In NH-01:

Bradley    (R) 46 (45)
Shea-Porter (D) 40 (39)

Shea-Porter (D) 42 (43)
Stephen     (R) 36 (35)

And in NH-02:

Hodes (D) 43 (52)
Horn  (R) 23 (25)

Hodes (D) 44 (51)
Clegg (R) 25 (24)

MissLaura has serious reservations about the partisan sampling used in UNH polls (they certainly missed the boat badly in polling these races in 2006). So take these polls for what they're worth, which is not a lot.

They do underscore two fundamental truths; Hodes is pretty safe, and Shea-Porter has work to do. That said, I think she'd win if the election were held today.

However, this is a very bad race about which to be complacent; Cook Political Report just moved the race to "Tossup" from "Leans Democratic", indicating the concern around Shea-Porter's reelection bid.

NC-10: Despite hanging in an R+15 district, everybody's favorite young wingnut, Republican Patty McHenry, is in fear for his political life.

Facing a remarkably talented opponent in Democrat Dan Johnson, McHenry was on the verge of trailing in fundraising for the second quarter. So rather than suffer this embarrassment, our man McHenry decided to loan his own campaign $170,000, for good-PR purposes.

I think it's safe to say he's feeling some electoral pressure from Johnson this year.

NM-02: Well, this is intriguing; both Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Ed Tinsley sacked their campaign managers.

This begs the question: who's winning?

Republican Ed Tinsley’s campaign already has a new manager. Chris Collins, who managed Heather Wilson’s unsuccessful primary bid for U.S. Senate, has taken over for Grant Hewitt, who is now deputy campaign manager. Meanwhile, Democrat Harry Teague has fired former campaign manager Brad Foster, who has not yet been replaced.

"We wish Brad well. He did a fine job on the campaign, but looking forward we had a difference of opinion about how to run the campaign," said Teague communications director Alex Cole.

Collins, meanwhile, pointed out that Hewitt is still on Tinsley’s staff and coordinating political activities.

"Grant did a terrific job managing the primary effort. Ed won by 10 points. Now we are shifting gears into the general," said Collins, who is also a former staffer for Sen. Pete Domenici. "... I came on board as an extra set of hands to help out with some of the management and organizational work. We have added several new staff in the last couple of weeks. Everybody is working hard to make sure Ed Tinsley is elected to Congress."

The district is about R+6, but Teague has been a surprisingly strong candidate so far. Hopefully he takes care of this staff shakeup shortly, and can pull off the upset in New Mexico's 2nd.

KS-04: Democratic candidate Donald Betts, a young State Senator looking to oust incumbent Todd Tiahrt in this Wichita-based district, liveblogged today at Future Majority.

NV-02, NV-03: Republican Dean Heller is running push-polls in Neavda against his Democratic opponent, Jill Derby.

I had the entertaining experience of listening in on a telephone poll this evening. It started out reasonably enough, asking the poll-taker's opinion of President Bush and whether he will vote for the Democrat or Republican in the congressional race. But the bias quickly became apparent.

The caller asked about U.S. Rep. Dean Heller's ability "to get things done" and his willingness to put constituents' interests over partisan politics. She asked if Heller is "one of us" sharing the same experiences, "worries and hope for the future."

Listing a number of positions, the caller asked if one was more or less likely to vote for Heller for his proven ability to work on a bipartisan basis, his support of English-only ballots, his fight against wasteful spending and his work to secure funding for DNA testing. My favorite: Heller "knows you can't haul supplies with a hybrid" and that "we need pick up trucks."

The pollster then switched her focus to Heller's Democratic opponent Jill Derby. According to the pollster, Derby is a career politician. She wasted $85,000 of taxpayer money on "worthless junkets" while on the Board of Regents (at one point the pollster said $85 million). She's bragged about national liberal groups funding her campaign. And she supports taxpayer funding of health care for illegal immigrants.

Yup, sounds awfully pushy to me.

Meanwhile, in the Third District, there's better news: The Cook Political Report has moved the race, pitting incumbent Rep. Jon Porter against State Sen. Dina Titus, from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up".

OH-16: This is a web ad from Democrat John Boccieri. I wish to hell this was on regular airwaves.

MI-07: Patriot Majority Midwest is running an ad hitting Republican Tim Walberg for being the only member of the House Education and Labor Committee to vote against reauthorizing Head Start.

Here's the ad:

Meanwhile, via press release, Democratic candidate Mark Schauer had a record fundraising quarter for a Democrat in the district.

BATTLE CREEK—Today State Senator Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) announced that his Congressional campaign raised more than $427,000 in the second quarter, which breaks the previous fundraising record he set earlier this year for the most money raised by a Democrat in the 7th district. Combined with the last quarter when he outraised his incumbent opponent, Schauer has now brought in more than $1.33 million and has more than $928,000 cash on hand.

Impressive.