CNN reports that Dr James Dobson, described by some as the most powerful living leader of the Dominionist movement, might be ready to kiss and make up with John McSame. The news came as a bit of a surprise -- to the irrevocably clueless anyway -- as just this year Dobson declared he could not vote for the aging Arizona Senator under any circumstance. Why the dramatic flip-flop? Ed Brayton makes a safe wager:

As I've been telling people for months, there is only one thing they really and truly want and know that they can get if they can keep Obama out of the White House: the Supreme Court. I guarantee you they have already cut a deal with McCain ...

On the wild chance that anyone really needed more or better reasons to vote for Obama, there you go. If McCain wins, odds are the next set of Supreme Court Justices will be chosen by an ultra-conservative American cleric leading a Neo-Reconstructionist movement in which public schools are blasphemous, and over zealous followers pray their hearts out for the violent end of the world every day -- just what every nuclear superpower needs. Forget about reproductive choices, science education, or equal rights. Ignorance and illiteracy breeds true. A decade or two under the purview of neo-clown winger judges groomed by the likes of Robert Bork or Roy Moore, and many of tomorrow's young women could end up in prearranged sexual servitude alternating between serial pregnancies and being locked in a menstrual shed.

The Bush White House is surely twice as ethical this year as last. In July 2007 the WH staff included two "Ethics Advisors", each earning more than $100,000. That was the year in which a parade of top administration officials were telling Congressional hearings that they remembered nothing about their criminal conspiracies.

Since 2007 both Ethics Advisors have left the WH. Previously the two ethicists in 2006 had also moved on. Perhaps the work load is a problem. Sensing that something needed to be done, the WH has now doubled the number of ethicists on staff to four. The top salary has also shot up nearly 20%.

The improvement in the White House's ethical standards is apparent. Fewer and fewer administration officials are feigning memory loss. During the past year the WH favored a much cleaner solution to the problem of oversight by refusing to comply at all with Congressional subpoenas.

Presumably that's why the WH was able to eliminate the Office for Lessons Learned. Bush has learned all the lessons he wishes to learn.

Here's something no one could have predicted...

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) on Thursday announced joint appointments to a landmark ethics review board that for the first time will allow private citizens to review allegations against members.

Still, four out of six members of the board for the newly created Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE) will be former members of Congress, including former CIA Director Porter Goss (R-Fla.), who will serve as co-chairman.

Well, golly-gee! Wow. The ex-chief spy -- in an era where insane FISA "reforms" have already made people suspicious of political spying -- being put in charge of sorting out the dirt on Members of Congress.

By the way, go read the article. It's a masterwork of news-in-context. Porter Goss, named to co-chair the ethics panel, written up in a DC insider publication, with no mention whatsoever of Dusty Foggo or Duke Cunningham.

Spies, bribes, hookers... ethics panel. Yeah, this is gonna be great.

Accountability, here we come!

Earlier today, after Barack Obama's speech in Berlin, the McCain campaign issued a this petty press release:

While Barack Obama took a premature victory lap in the heart of Berlin, proclaiming himself a citizen of the world, John McCain continued to make his case to the American citizens who will decide this election. Barack Obama offered eloquent praise for this country, but the contrast is clear. John McCain has dedicated his life to serving and protecting America, Barack Obama spent an afternoon talking about.

Yes, how dare a presidential candidate speak to the world about his ability to govern as president. And as a matter of fact, here's John McCain thoughts on this very subject before his trip to Latin America earlier this month:

Going to Latin America in the midst of a presidential campaign, he said, speaks less to his role as a senator than to what he's hoping to achieve if elected this fall. "It's more my ability to govern as president," he said, "my ability to lead as president, to keep up with these major issues."

Did he forget that he said that, or is John McCain that much of a hypocrite?

Bryon York over at NRO's The Corner whines:

It's a small passage from Obama's Berlin speech, but this formulation, common in some circles, grates on some ears, like mine:

The terrorists of September 11th plotted in Hamburg and trained in Kandahar and Karachi before killing thousands from all over the globe on American soil.

Yes, the victims were from all over the globe — places like Brooklyn, and the Bronx, and Manhattan, and Queens, and Staten Island, and New Jersey — all over.  And most were Americans, weren't they?  Wasn't that the point of the attack?  This isn't to diminish the loss of anyone on September 11, but people come from all over the world to be Americans, and the great majority of people who died that day were Americans.

York points to Factcheck.org, which states that only 21 of the death certificates handed out as a consequence of September 11 were of foreign nationals from eight countries.

There were 327 foreign nationals killed in the September 11 attacks. They were commemorated on the fifth anniversary, with Condoleeza Rice in attendance, as you can read about in this story, Five-Year 9/11 Remembrance Honors Victims from 90 Countries. Some, it is true, were dual citizens. But Britain alone lost 67 of her citizens that day, as you can read about in this story, British victims of 9/11 remembered by royal couple.

York's take on this not only begrudges other countries their loss, but also renders that loss a provincial, American loss. Obama is attempting, years after the fact, to remind the world of the opposite, of the universal horror of that day and the way that people from every corner of the globe - from France to Iran - stood in solidarity with New York and Washington on September 11. And, of course, by implication, how attitudes like York's within the administration squandered that sense of solidarity.  

York is certainly petty in downplaying the deaths of non-Americans in the attacks. But worse, inherent in his screech is the reverse of his xenophobia, a rejection of the notion that we as Americans could ever feel solidarity and a sense of humanist bonding with people of another country. Screw the Enlightenment, we're not cosmopolitan, we've got no broader sense of common humanity. It's us versus the world, and if you don't live here, you don't f'n matter.

Pathetic.

McCain apparently isn't as tech ignorant as we think.  Like most Republicans, he appears to be getting all his news from chain emails, because he's parroting the latest talking point that's been propagating down the pipe that brought previous bits of GOP misdirection.  

Earlier, campaigning in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., McCain credited the recent $10-a-barrel drop in the price of oil to President Bush's lifting of a presidential ban on offshore drilling, an action he has been advocating in his presidential campaign.

See, we didn't even have to drill to lower the price of oil, we only had to talk about it.  Which has to make you wonder why Bush didn't bother to remove the executive ban until after Republicans had decided to make oil the focus of their campaign.  (Oh yeah, and how is it that Democrats kept oil companies from saving us when Bush left the executive ban in effect until now?)

What's the real reason oil prices are falling?

"The worries about demand erosion in the U.S. and an economic slowdown are really pulling prices down," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consulting firm Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore.

The Energy Department's report also showed that U.S. gasoline stockpiles jumped 2.9 million barrels last week, far more than analysts surveyed by energy research firm Platts predicted. The decline in crude inventories was less than forecast.

So congratulations to McCain, Bush, and the Republicans!  They've reduced oil prices by wrecking the economy to the point where demand is falling.  I guess that's one way to satisfy the supply/demand equation.

Don't worry, none of this will make the email.

Just a little reminder from Berlin ....

This is what "proud to be an American" looks like in the 21st Century.

We're in trouble:

Obama was at the Tiergarten in Berlin, amid a sea of people.  McCain was at "Schmidt's Sausage Haus und Restaurant" in German Village, an enclave of Columbus, Ohio.

McCain addressed about a half dozen Ohio small business owners in the historic village.
"I'd love to give a speech in Germany," McCain said. "But I'd much prefer to do it as President."

[...]

This event was hastily organized after the candidate's planned visit to a Louisiana [oil rig] was cancelled due to the threat of hurricanes in the Gulf Coast.

Someone emailed me this news from another source, and at first we couldn't tell if it was satire.  Obama, of course, gave a speech this afternoon to huge crowd in Berlin.  He has just come from the Middle East, where he garnered glowing press.   Seeing the McCain campaign try to counter Obama's Berlin event with a stop in German Village where McCain ate some sausage is so pathetic it probably causes most political observers who aren't fervent Republicans to laugh, and like us, think, "nah, this has to be a joke.  They're not that bad...are they?"

It wasn't a joke.  And it's got me worried.

You probably know the concept of peaking too soon.  I'm afraid the McCain campaign may be bottoming out too soon.  I've been following politics since the mid-80's, and I can't think of any campaign that has been as bad as McCain's.  

The campaign thought it was a good idea to send McCain out to an oil rig during a hurricane.  That didn't work, because, you know, there was a hurricane.  By even suggesting that it was a good idea, and then having to pull back from their plans, they looked like nitwits.  (And that doesn't even address the problems caused by the oil spill that's shut down the Mississippi River south of New Orleans.  

Their Plan B?  They sent him to an ethnic diner that will reinforce the contrast between the tired McCain, who met with a few small businessmen, and the charismatic Obama, who got a reception from Berliners like that given to John F. Kennedy.  

Obama went to Berlin and got hundreds of thousands of people and fawning press coverage.  McCain went to Ohio and got a bratwurst and probably a case of heartburn.    

So why am I worried?  Because I can't believe Republicans will allow McCain to continue running his campaign this poorly.  [And the RNC hasn't been any better, as SusanG pointed out yesterday.]  The rest of the party doesn't necessarily need him to run a campaign that can put him in a position to win, but they have to do whatever they can to prevent him from losing solidly and losing in a landslide.  A solid loss hurts them for a while.  It could take them a decade or longer to recover from a landslide loss.

McCain isn't a particularly good candidate.  He's undisciplined, many people think he's too old to be president, he's too closely associated with George W. Bush, and his party is now loathed by much of America.  He's generally seen as likable, but more and more his weaknesses as a candidate are becoming visible.

But as bad a candidate as McCain may be, his campaign is making him worse.  They wasted the time between him locking up their nomination and Obama securing ours.  Obama raised as much money in one day last month as McCain raised in all of June.  McCain spent far more than Obama in June, but he didn't gain any ground.

The McCain campaign recently went through shake-up that was supposed to tighten their operations.  While they have gotten slightly more aggressive in attacking Obama, their messaging and choice of locations and visuals have been laughably bad and don't appear to be getting any better.

I love seeing McCain's campaign get outclassed by Obama's in almost every facet.  I have thought all along that whoever won our nomination would win the presidency, and that there's a good chance that by historical standards it won't even be close.  But I don't like to see the McCain campaign hit what by similar historical standards may be rock bottom, and do it so far out from the election that McCain might have time to bring in people who could improve his operation and make the election closer than we would all like.  

Colorado

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 4.5% (6/17-24 results)

These Q-poll numbers are creating a bit of a panic today, which is a bit overwrought and unwarranted, even if the odd number here and there doesn't look good for us. In the case of Colorado, it's always nice when the numbers show our guy in the lead, but most polling has shown this race within the MoE, and this poll is no different. This is what's known as a "battleground", and as such, is inherently, by definition, tight.

I mean, look at the Pollster.com composite score on this race: Obama 46.2, McCain 45.5. That is tight, and should remain so for a while.

Michigan

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 4% (6/17-24 results)

Float within the MoE. These numbers are better than those of local firm EPIC-MRA released yesterday, which gave Obama a narrow 43-41 lead. This poll actually widens the composite a bit, up to 47 Obama, 40 McCain.

Lots of rumors floating around that Romney has the leg up in the GOP veep sweepstakes because of his ability to "deliver" Michigan.

Minnesota

Rasmussen. 7/22. MoE 4.5% (7/10 results)

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 2.8% (6/17-24 results)

Not much change in Rasmussen's numbers, but a huge McCain gain in that Q-poll that has everyone freaking out. Rather than cherry pick the favorable polls and try to explain away the bad ones, use this as a reminder that every state is competitive until the fat lady has sung. You get complacent at your own peril.

But the composite poll of polls still gives Obama a comfortable lead -- Obama 50.2, McCain 37.7. No need to panic, but also no need to slack off.

New Hampshire

Rasmussen. 7/23. MoE 4.5% (6/18 results)

This poll seems to ratify yesterday's ARG poll showing things getting tighter in the Granite State. Both ARG and Ras had given Obama a double-digit lead in their previous polls, and both show it much tighter today.

The composite is at Obama 48, McCain 41.9, but I think it's fair to conclude that this state is likely a bit tighter than that.

Wisconsin

Quinnipiac U. 7/14-22. MoE 4.5% (6/17-24 results)

More float within the MoE. Wisconsin remains surprisingly strong for Obama given how tough it's been to hold the last two presidential years. The composite remains safely in double digits -- Obama 50.6, McCain 38.3.

Here is the McCain campaign's response to today's speech by Barack Obama in Berlin, Germany.

While Barack Obama took a premature victory lap in the heart of Berlin, proclaiming himself a citizen of the world, John McCain continued to make his case to the American citizens who will decide this election. Barack Obama offered eloquent praise for this country, but the contrast is clear. John McCain has dedicated his life to serving and protecting America, Barack Obama spent an afternoon talking about.

Can McCain get any more petty and childish than he has been for the past week?

Field (PDF). 7/8-14. Likely voters. MoE 3.9% (5/17-26)

There is no more accurate poll in California than Field, so these are good numbers. The fact that the "no" vote (always an advantage in these initiatives) is already over 50 percent virtually ensures that as long as the "no" camp runs a vigorous campaign, this hateful ballot initiative will be defeated. Fact is, same-sex marriages are taking place up and down the Golden State, and there has been one large collective shrug from the broader public. It's just not as scary as the haters would have us believe. Rather, it's kind of inspiring.

Update: Got the right link up there now.

Lots of news today.

NM-Sen: So far, everything has come up Milhouse for Tom Udall; he has substantial polling leads and a significant cash advantage over Republican Steve Pearce.

Get ready for a round of negative ads from Pearce...and, it seems, from shadowy Big Oil groups. NM FBIHOP reports:

The American Energy Alliance, a group with no website, no online FEC filings and no IRS filings, has started airing ads blasting Tom Udall for not wanting to drill anywhere and everywhere.

...

An excerpt: "The U.S. is sitting on top of vast untapped oil reserves, estimated at about 2 trillion barrels, enough oil to last us for 300 years."

This is complete bullshit.  Even Saudi Arabia doesn't have 2 trillion barrels; they have about a quarter of that in their reserves.

Who are these guys? They're the American Energy Association, a group with no real profile since 1996:

A September 13, 1996 Washington Post article described the group as "a coalition of the National Association of Manufacturers, American Petroleum Institute and Edison Electric Institute."  Hmm... wonder what their agenda on wanting more drilling could possibly be.  

Steve Pearce can't afford to close the gap between himself and Udall. He hasn't the resources, nor the likability. So it will be left to third-party organizations, here and elsewhere, to do the Republicans' jobs for them.

NC-Sen: DSCC chair Chuck Schumer loves Kay Hagan:

Schumer confirmed the DSCC has committed millions of dollars to advertising for Hagan and said the organization is setting up an "extensive" on-the-ground field network of staff on Hagan's behalf.

"That shows our commitment," Schumer said. He would not go into further details.

The Chairman was so bold as to say:

"Kay Hagan's on fire," Schumer said. "She's doing great. That's a seat we’re real strong in."

And even though North Carolina isn't a state in which Democrats are ahead, Schumer made a prediction about Hagan: "She's going to win," he said.

She very well might.

KS-Sen: Pat Roberts certainly seems to think he's in some danger; he's out with his fifth ad of the cycle.

This one is especially weak. It hits Democrat Jim Slattery for a weak attendance record in Congress in 1994, his last year...conveniently ignoring that Slattery was in Kansas running for Governor in 1994.

Nice one, Pat Roberts.  

Meanwhile, Slattery's latest ad hits the Republican incumbent Roberts on gas prices:

MN-Sen: A Rasmussen poll shows Al Franken and Norm Coleman deadlocked in Minnesota:  

Franken recently shook up his campaign staff, and has taken a harder edge against Coleman in recent ads. Coleman, for his part, has responded in kind with his latest ad, entitled "Crazy Porn", which alleges that Franken was responsible for, well, writing crazy porn.

Things are better for Franken then they were even a few weeks ago, but beating Norm Coleman is not going to be easy. It never was.

House Races

NH-02, NH-02: Take these polls with a boatload of salt, but here are the UNH polling numbers for New Hampshire's Congressional districts. In NH-01:

And in NH-02:

MissLaura has serious reservations about the partisan sampling used in UNH polls (they certainly missed the boat badly in polling these races in 2006). So take these polls for what they're worth, which is not a lot.

They do underscore two fundamental truths; Hodes is pretty safe, and Shea-Porter has work to do. That said, I think she'd win if the election were held today.

However, this is a very bad race about which to be complacent; Cook Political Report just moved the race to "Tossup" from "Leans Democratic", indicating the concern around Shea-Porter's reelection bid.

NC-10: Despite hanging in an R+15 district, everybody's favorite young wingnut, Republican Patty McHenry, is in fear for his political life.

Facing a remarkably talented opponent in Democrat Dan Johnson, McHenry was on the verge of trailing in fundraising for the second quarter. So rather than suffer this embarrassment, our man McHenry decided to loan his own campaign $170,000, for good-PR purposes.

I think it's safe to say he's feeling some electoral pressure from Johnson this year.

NM-02: Well, this is intriguing; both Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Ed Tinsley sacked their campaign managers.

This begs the question: who's winning?

Republican Ed Tinsley’s campaign already has a new manager. Chris Collins, who managed Heather Wilson’s unsuccessful primary bid for U.S. Senate, has taken over for Grant Hewitt, who is now deputy campaign manager. Meanwhile, Democrat Harry Teague has fired former campaign manager Brad Foster, who has not yet been replaced.

"We wish Brad well. He did a fine job on the campaign, but looking forward we had a difference of opinion about how to run the campaign," said Teague communications director Alex Cole.

Collins, meanwhile, pointed out that Hewitt is still on Tinsley’s staff and coordinating political activities.

"Grant did a terrific job managing the primary effort. Ed won by 10 points. Now we are shifting gears into the general," said Collins, who is also a former staffer for Sen. Pete Domenici. "... I came on board as an extra set of hands to help out with some of the management and organizational work. We have added several new staff in the last couple of weeks. Everybody is working hard to make sure Ed Tinsley is elected to Congress."

The district is about R+6, but Teague has been a surprisingly strong candidate so far. Hopefully he takes care of this staff shakeup shortly, and can pull off the upset in New Mexico's 2nd.

KS-04: Democratic candidate Donald Betts, a young State Senator looking to oust incumbent Todd Tiahrt in this Wichita-based district, liveblogged today at Future Majority.

NV-02, NV-03: Republican Dean Heller is running push-polls in Neavda against his Democratic opponent, Jill Derby.

I had the entertaining experience of listening in on a telephone poll this evening. It started out reasonably enough, asking the poll-taker's opinion of President Bush and whether he will vote for the Democrat or Republican in the congressional race. But the bias quickly became apparent.

The caller asked about U.S. Rep. Dean Heller's ability "to get things done" and his willingness to put constituents' interests over partisan politics. She asked if Heller is "one of us" sharing the same experiences, "worries and hope for the future."

Listing a number of positions, the caller asked if one was more or less likely to vote for Heller for his proven ability to work on a bipartisan basis, his support of English-only ballots, his fight against wasteful spending and his work to secure funding for DNA testing. My favorite: Heller "knows you can't haul supplies with a hybrid" and that "we need pick up trucks."

The pollster then switched her focus to Heller's Democratic opponent Jill Derby. According to the pollster, Derby is a career politician. She wasted $85,000 of taxpayer money on "worthless junkets" while on the Board of Regents (at one point the pollster said $85 million). She's bragged about national liberal groups funding her campaign. And she supports taxpayer funding of health care for illegal immigrants.

Yup, sounds awfully pushy to me.

Meanwhile, in the Third District, there's better news: The Cook Political Report has moved the race, pitting incumbent Rep. Jon Porter against State Sen. Dina Titus, from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up".

OH-16: This is a web ad from Democrat John Boccieri. I wish to hell this was on regular airwaves.

MI-07: Patriot Majority Midwest is running an ad hitting Republican Tim Walberg for being the only member of the House Education and Labor Committee to vote against reauthorizing Head Start.

Here's the ad:

Meanwhile, via press release, Democratic candidate Mark Schauer had a record fundraising quarter for a Democrat in the district.

BATTLE CREEK—Today State Senator Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) announced that his Congressional campaign raised more than $427,000 in the second quarter, which breaks the previous fundraising record he set earlier this year for the most money raised by a Democrat in the 7th district. Combined with the last quarter when he outraised his incumbent opponent, Schauer has now brought in more than $1.33 million and has more than $928,000 cash on hand.

Impressive.

• Who is this guy and why is he so whiny? He was "frightened and intimidated" by the "angry left blog Daily Kos"? What a wuss.
• Wondering what the Sarah Palin scandal is all about? Here's a good roundup of the affair that has knocked a Republican governor once sporting an over-90 percent approval rating back to earth..
• Comments are scary. Yup, that means you.

  To add, these stories always start with sensational ledes about "death threats", as though it's those crazy liberals or whatnot that engage in that kind of idiotic behavior. Here's an email I got a couple of days ago:

  killaliberal@yahoo.com to markos
  show details Jul 22 (2 days ago)

  addresses are being compiled of all kos personnel...once this has been done they will be targeted for execution... death to all KOS.

  Is that a "death threat" or just a George Bush-loving fringe wanker trying to be tough hacking away at his cheetos-stained keyboard? Having grown up in El Salvador and seen what real political violence looks like, this is all pretty lame. In El Salvador, dissenters were actually assassinated. It wasn't all idle threats. And so far, this country hasn't descended into that dark abyss.

• The number of registered Democrats in the 29 party registration states has grown by 700,000. The number of registered Republicans has dropped by 1 million. That's a 1.7 million net gain in our direction.
• Colbert dedicated most of his show to rapper Nas and the Color of Change petition on Fox's racism.
• Yeah. Old people tend to be stubborn too.
• Obama's small donors outraise McCain.
• I had to look at this for a great deal of time to figure out that it wasn't parody.
• Larry Sabato and a couple of co-authors, over at his place, say there is no toss-up.

  While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed--historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months--point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain's favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up [...]

  Barack Obama is not a national hero like Dwight Eisenhower, and George Bush is no Harry Truman. But if history is any guide, and absent a dramatic change in election fundamentals or an utter collapse of the Obama candidacy, John McCain is likely to suffer the same fate as Adlai Stevenson.

• As Ford posts yet another crazy-ass quarterly loss ($8.7 billion), it makes one wonder how much better the US auto industry (and its unions) would be doing if they had let the government raise CAFE standards, huh? The government could've bailed them out of this mess.

  And it makes one wonder how much better that industry would be doing if they hadn't so viciously opposed Bill and Hillary Clinton's 1993 health care initiative. In 2004, GM spent over $5 billion in health care costs -- a number that is likely significantly larger today. That's billions that would be off its balance sheet had they not opposed universal healthcare.

  Lots of industries may shoot themselves in the foot, but none more so than the auto industry. It truly deserves the comeuppance it is getting (and it has gotten a healthy assist from its unions). The people who don't deserve it -- of course -- are its workers, who are getting screwed.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/21-23. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines)

A couple of weeks ago, Rasmussen had the race tied 43-43, and some wondered whether it might be an outlier. Obama campaigned in the state over the Fourth of July holiday, suggesting their own internals showed a race in the cards, but Ras had offered the only recent public poll in the state. This R2K poll now confirms the fact that yes, North Dakota is a bona fide battleground.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/21-23. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/22 results)

Looks like float within the MoE. This one is tight. Note, there was a methodological difference in this poll from the last -- we omitted the party ID of the candidates since the ballot will omit them. Ultimately, it seemed to make little difference.

And check out the presidential:

Obama is getting 19 percent of the white vote in this poll, just shy of the 20 percent DavidNYC identified as key for winning the state. The second part of that equation is to boost African American turnout in the state to 40 percent of the total vote. In this poll, African Americans represent 37 percent of the vote. The undecided African American vote -- 15 percent (!) -- will come down for Obama. Now it's a question of turning them out in historic numbers.

Full crosstabs below the fold.

Race tracker wiki: MS-Sen

OK, we knew Republican Senate candidate Jim Gilmore was in serious electoral trouble, given that he trails by 20-30 points in every poll, and has about a tenth of the cash of his Democratic opponent Mark Warner. Now, it seems, he might be facing ethical questions as well.

Turns out Gilmore filed false information on his campaign disclosure forms, obscuring his ties to the Virginia-based company Windmill International. This is serious business, as Windmill International currently embroiled in a federal lawsuit as two of its board members, Douglas Combs and Hansford Johnson, stand accused of attempting to defraud the government.

Combs and Johnson are both heavy donors to Gilmore's political campaigns. Their company even launched the "Gilmore4President" web site, when Gilmore was waging his quixotic quest for the Republican nomination. Yet when a federal suit was filed against Windmill International, Gilmore found a slick method of maneuvering around the trouble; he claimed to have worked for a different company named Windmill International.

From the Washington Post:

On the [campaign disclosure] forms, the first filed in June 2007 for his presidential campaign and the second in May after he joined the U.S. Senate race, Gilmore said he was on the board of Windmill International.

Gilmore, who signed his name attesting that the information on the forms was "complete and correct," reported that Windmill International was based in Nashua, N.H.

But Gilmore was on the board of a Virginia-based company also called Windmill International. The two companies are not affiliated. The Virginia company, headed by Douglas Combs, a former Navy official, is at the center of an ongoing lawsuit alleging that Combs and others tried to secure fraudulent government contracts in Iraq.

The Gilmore campaign claims this was just a "clerical error". This would be easier to believe if Gilmore and his campaign had not seemingly gone out of their way to indicate that it was, in fact, the New Hampshire company for which he worked:

In 2005, Combs's company filed a report with the State Corporation Commission listing Gilmore as vice chairman of the company. SCC records do not list Gilmore after that.

But Gilmore's forms for his Senate campaign incorrectly say he was on the New Hampshire company's board from December 2004 to December 2007. The Web site of the Virginia company still lists Gilmore as a member of its "team."

Gamonal said she did not know why Gilmore's name was on the Virginia company's Web site. In the campaign's statement, Gilmore says he served on the Virginia company's board as an unpaid adviser from May 2005 to June 2006. Gilmore also reported that Windmill International is a "veterans contract group."

Richard L. Manganello, founder and chief executive officer of the New Hampshire company, which describes itself as a contracting firm run by veterans, said neither he nor his business has had any ties to Gilmore or Combs's company, which is based at Combs's home in Rappahannock County.

While the New Hampshire group is indeed a "veterans' contracting group", the Virginia company does not deal in veterans' issues.

So, to recap: Gilmore claimed to have worked for a veterans' contracting group, based in New Hampshire, from 2004 to 2007, on his campaign disclosure forms.

He is now admitting that none of those things were true.

Falsifying one's campaign disclosure forms is a relatively serious offense, and Gilmore may face a fine.

But more to the point: what exactly was the nature of Gilmore's relationship to Combs and Johnson, and Windmill International? What was so dangerous about that relationship that it was worth breaking federal law to conceal?

Gilmore was not named in the federal lawsuit, but as this story breaks, there will be many more questions as to how deep Gilmore's involvement with Windmill goes.

Race tracker wiki: VA-Sen

^{REUTERS/Tobias Schwarz}

This is what "proud to be an American" looks like in the 21st Century.

^AP